The Bias That’s Costing You the Next Gold Rush

If you’ve read my resources page or talked with me about investing, you know I’m a big fan of Tactical Asset Allocation. Here’s the honest answer why: it’s the only framework I’ve found that gives us a system to avoid succumbing to our investment biases.

When I started Calculated Wealth in 2022, I wanted to build a firm that was authentic to me. At its core, my business is about being a true partner to families navigating retirement. But the investment philosophy that powers that partnership? It’s Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) built on dual momentum.

I also support a true Global Asset Allocation* approach— portfolios allocating at least 20% to real assets.

While GAA is great, it’s not the core strategy for two reasons:

• Nobody holds enough real assets long-term. GAA requires buying and holding “weird” assets (gold, REITs, TIPS, commodities) through decades of underperformance. Most can’t stomach it.

• Anyone who can overcome their bias towards a US-only portfolio often prefers TAA’s flexibility.
• • Best of both worlds. We pair TAA with US equities to give you “weird assets” exposure—only when they’re working.

*Fun Fact: Meb Faber’s research shows the only portfolio with positive real returns every decade? The one with 25% gold. See the data or Meb’s tweet. Or go here to read the original research.

The Portfolio Problem

Every client who walks through my door has nearly identical portfolios. US stocks. US bonds. Maybe 2% in real assets (gold, commodities, TIPS, real estate), but most likely none.

When I mention gold, they roll their eyes.

They had a reason for that skepticism: US stocks and bonds had worked beautifully for years. Why would anyone own anything else?

That’s the problem.

Popular buy-and-hold portfolios are always a reflection of recency bias. Nobody wants to own what hasn’t worked lately. We extrapolate recent history into the distant future, and we’re shockingly confident about it.

The Gold Paradox (Classic Example)

Gold was the hated asset—eye rolls in every client meeting. After years of underperformance, it showed momentum. Our TAA portfolios loaded up heavily. The run delivered great returns.

As this occurred, the financial internet was split. US-biased investors started calling gold a bubble about to pop. Other figureheads finally recommend static allocations of 5-10% after a multi-year bull market. 

It doesn’t matter which side they’re on. Whether rooting for collapse (to vindicate skipping it) or piling in late (accepting the bull market), it’s your bias talking. Gold is one example. The next “weird” asset will arrive soon. enough.  

The Unknowable Future

I tell my clients this relentlessly: the future is unknowable. You’re not a genius. I’m not a genius. The smartest people in the world can’t reliably predict where markets are headed. Ego doesn’t change that.

Once you accept that, you face a harder question: If the future is unknowable, what should you actually do?

The answer is to acknowledge your biases and build a strategy that deliberately gives you a process to avoid them.

How TAA Busts Your Biases

Here’s what TAA does: it follows prices. When certain asset classes start showing positive momentum, we eventually own them. When they don’t, we own a different asset class. Period.

The beauty of TAA is that you’re not the one making the decisions. You’re following the price trends, which are well established through a century of data. In other words, your big brain and your biases are set aside. You simply follow the system and watch it navigate the always-changing investment landscape.

Gold (the eye-roll asset) shows how: after prolonged underperformance (zero exposure), momentum emerged → we bought heavy → rode the massive run.

That’s the whole point: you don’t have to like gold to benefit from it. 

You own it while it’s hot. Don’t when it’s not. 

What if pundits are right and gold collapses? Our system sells gold, locks in gains, buys what’s next.

What if pundits are wrong and gold (or tomorrow’s equivalent) delivers decade-long returns your 10% allocation can never capture?

Here’s your dilemma: Do you want to spend retirement second-guessing “what if” about gold… or the next “weird” asset that explodes?

TAA gives you rules to ride 25-40% allocations to ‘weird’ assets when they’re crushing it—no guesswork, no second-guessing.

No predictions. No bias. Just the system choosing the flavor of the day.

The Bias-Busting Ticket

If you’re biased against gold, commodities, real estate, TIPS, emerging markets, or other non-traditional allocations, TAA is your ticket out.

You don’t have to predict the future. You don’t have to be smarter than you are. You just must be willing to follow an investment process and set your big brain and biases aside.

That’s the core of Calculated Wealth.

If you or someone you love wants to bust your biases and navigate the unknowable future without guessing, reach out. Let’s talk about how TAA can work for you.

Continue reading more of our insights by visiting our resources page. If you’re ready to see how we can partner with you on your wealth plan, please contact us today for a complimentary introductory call.